Business Analysis And Financial Forecasting For Venis Cafe

Business Model Analysis

This report discusses and thoroughly analyzes the business structure of the Venis Cafe and makes a detailed financial forecast for the business for the next three years. The report begins with the evaluation of the business model of the restaurant. The ownership structure of the business is discussed with issues such as capital contribution and issues of profit sharing since the business is a partnership of three people. The paper also discusses the sources of finance that the partners started the business with. The next section of this paper discusses the aims and objectives of the business and ways in which it fulfills the needs of the consumer. The paper discusses the physical location of the business and the contact details such as phone numbers and physical address. The management aspect of the business is also discussed with great focus on the organizational structure, qualifications of the management team and their level of experience. In the management section, the strengths and weaknesses of the management team are discussed (Keillor, 2007). Another important point in this section is indicating a garreteer who is the second line contingency who will repay the money in case the owner or owners die or are incapacitated.

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The report also discusses the products and services offered by the business. This contains details such as the types of meals served in the restaurant and special treats and packages for customers. The markets for the business will be mainly the local population especially traders who carry out their business in the city. The suppliers’ fort the business will be selected competitively with the supplier with the capacity to supplier the highest quality goods and on time being the one to win the tenders. The final section of this entrepreneurial report contains forecast of financial reports of the business to help predict the financial future of the business. This is accompanied by an in depth analysis of the financial projections in order to add clarity to the report.

The business model for Venis restaurant is focused on fulfilling the needs of consumers who are health conscious. The restaurant will offer food which is very nutritious with an emphasis on organically produced food and food products. This idea is driven by evidence from research indicating that consumers are becoming very conscious of what they eat especially in UK. The demand for nutritious food which has not undergone in chemical procedures has been shooting in the recent years. This has majorly due to advice from health professionals and various researchers who have blamed unhealthy food and especially processed food for the increase in diseases such as cancer.

The model of Venis restaurant focuses on entering the industry with a cost leadership approach. When the business has gained a substantial number of customers, the prices for the products and services will be increased in order to help the business recover the initial investment and generate interest on capital by making good profits. It won’t take long for the business to review its pricing mechanism since the demand for the products is expected to be high which means that price is not a very vital determinant of demand. The business will also offer exception services that focus on the needs of every specific customer (Weinberg, 2009). This will help the business gain competitive advantage over its rivals in the industry. This is because most of the restaurants who offer the same products as Venis focus mainly on profits maximization since customers are many. In this process, they tend to lose focus on the need for customer satisfaction and customers feeling appreciated and well treated. This will be achieved by recruiting and employing highly trained and experienced staff who know how to deal with customers in this industry.

Environmental Analysis of the Business

There is importance to analyze the external environment in which the business will be operating. This will help in preparing the owners of the business and the management in facing and overcoming the challenges that may exist in this industry. Environmental analysis also helps in determining the strengths and weaknesses of business in this industry. The industry trends and dynamics are determined in this stage. Venis restaurant will be operating in the hotel industry. The business will be located in the city of London. The industry is continuously growing and the expected future growth for the industry is very high. According to a report by PWC, hotel industry in most regions and cities in the UK, the pace of growth for the hotel industry is expected to grow but at a slower pace than in 2016. The report projects that revenue for the hotel industry is expected to grow by 2.4% in the year. The expected decrease in growth is mainly due to the uncertainty surrounding the exit from EU by the UK. London however being one of the biggest cities in the region is expected to not be affected so much by this factor.

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The characteristics of this industry include high operation expenses with labor costs being very high. This is because it’s a service industry and therefore companies operating in this industry must rely on highly trained and experienced man power in order to adequately cater for the needs of the consumers. The importance of human resource in this industry cannot be over emphasized. Another significant characteristic of this industry is that there are many buyers and seller. This therefore means that Venis will be operating in perfectly competitive market. The products offered in this market are highly homogeneous but are differentiated through branding, marketing and services offered. There are several regulations in this industry. The major regulation in this industry includes health and safety standards where a person opening a restaurant is required to apply and obtain a certificate from the public health department (Christopher, 2016). The owners are also required to obtain licenses from the food and drug authority to ensure that all the safety standards are met in regard to the food offered to the public. The business also needs to pay business permit fees to both the local and the national government before beginning operations.

The competition situation in this industry is characterized by high levels of competition. The competitors in these industry businesses are fast embracing technology which helps in increasing efficiency. There are many competitors in this industry. The high number of competitors is due to a variety of reasons such as ease of entry into the business. The other factor contributing to the large numbers of competitors include high profit margins which attracts new firms to join the industry. Venis restaurant will however specialize in offering organically produced food especially traditional foods from different cultures across the world. The number of restaurant specializing in this sector however is very few. The business will therefore fill a very huge gap in this industry. The competition however is still increasing in this business and is expected to increase even more in future (Jackson,2013). The key factors in this industry include sensitivity to customer needs which is the core to the success of the business. Another key factor is the cost factor. The costs in this industry are high and therefore, proper management should be done in order to ensure efficiency in management of resources.

Financial Forecast

The financial forecast section of this report helps in analyzing the expected financial position of the company in future

Month

Jan 13

Feb 13

Mar 13

Apr 13

May 13

Jun 13

Jul 13

Aug 13

Sep 13

Oct 13

Nov 13

Dec 13

Sales

1,100

1,240

1,330

2,300

2,300

2,400

2,400

2,450

2,450

2,500

2,550

2,500

Sale of goods/services

 1,100.00

 1,240.00

 1,330.00

 1,440.00

 1,500.00

 1,600.00

 1,670.00

 1,670.00

 1,750.00

 1,830.00

 1,910.00

 1,990.00

Sundry Income (e.g. Commission earned, franchise fees etc.)

230.00

230.00

 320.00

 320.00

 400.00

 430.00

 510.00

 520.00

 400.00

 400.00

 510.00

 500.00

other incomes

 –  

 20.00

 10.00

 35.00

 110.00

 234.00

 175.00

 130.00

 134.00

 130.00

 140.00

 150.00

Total Sales

?2,430.00

?2,730.00

?2,990.00

?4,095.00

?4,310.00

?4,664.00

?4,755.00

?4,770.00

?4,734.00

?4,860.00

?5,110.00

?5,140.00

Sales Discounts given

 210.00

 215.00

 230.00

 255.00

 255.00

 275.00

 275.00

 280.00

 280.00

 301.00

 315.00

 320.00

Sales Commissions paid

 55.00

 64.00

 67.00

 110.00

110.00

 114.00

114.00

 115.00

 115.00

 120.00

 124.00

 127.00

Total Discounts/ Commissions

?265.00

?279.00

?297.00

?365.00

?365.00

?389.00

?389.00

?395.00

?395.00

?421.00

?439.00

?447.00

Total Net Income

?2,165.00

?2,451.00

?2,693.00

?3,730.00

?3,945.00

?4,275.00

?4,366.00

?4,375.00

?4,339.00

?4,439.00

?4,671.00

?4,693.00

Cost of Sales

Opening Stock

 600.00

 1,100.00

 1,065.00

 10.00

 290.00

 540.00

 570.00

 370.00

 36.00

 –  

 280.00

Stock Purchased

 1,500.00

 1,300.00

 670.00

 350.00

 2,400.00

 2,090.00

 2,420.00

 2,150.00

1,900.00

 2,200.00

 2,140.00

 2,000.00

 1,500.00

 1,900.00

 1,770.00

 1,415.00

 2,410.00

 2,380.00

 2,960.00

 2,720.00

 2,270.00

 2,236.00

 2,140.00

 2,280.00

Less Closing Stock

 600.00

 1,100.00

 1,065.00

 10.00

 290.00

 540.00

 470.00

 370.00

 36.00

 –  

 280.00

 –  

Total Cost of Sales

?900.00

?800.00

?705.00

?1,270.00

?2,120.00

?1,840.00

?2,490.00

?2,350.00

?2,234.00

?2,236.00

?1,860.00

?2,280.00

Gross Profit

?1,265.00

?1,651.00

?1,988.00

?2,460.00

?1,825.00

?2,435.00

?1,876.00

?2,025.00

?2,105.00

?2,203.00

?2,811.00

?2,413.00

Expenses

General & Administrative

Bank charges

 0.90

 1,1

 2.00

 2.00

 3.00

2.50

 2.50

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

 3.00

Credit card commission

 3.00

 3.00

 3.00

3.00

 3.00

 4.00

 1.00

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

 2.00

Consultant fees

 6.00

 6.00

 6.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

Office Supplies

 68.00

 12.00

 22.00

 20.00

17.00

 17.00

 20.00

 21.00

 20.00

 20.00

 22.00

 21.00

License fees

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

 70.00

Business insurance

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 $30.00

 30.00

Etc.

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

 –  

Total General & Administrative

?177.90

?121.00

?133.00

?132.00

?130.00

?130.50

?130.50

?132.00

?131.00

?131.00

?133.00

?133.00

Marketing & Promotional

Advertising

 280.00

110.00

 70.00

Promotion – General

 80.00

 70.00

 60.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

30.00

Promotion – Other

Etc.

Total Marketing & Promotional

?280.00

?110.00

?70.00

?80.00

?70.00

?60.00

?30.00

?30.00

?30.00

?30.00

?30.00

?30.00

Operating Expenses

Newspapers & magazines

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

 45.00

45.00

 45.00

Parking/Taxis/Tolls

Entertainment/Meals

Travel/Accomodation

Laundry/dry cleaning

 30.00

 30.00

 34.00

 30.00

 30.00

 26.00

 34.00

 25.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

 30.00

Cleaning & cleaning products

Sundry supplies

Equipment hire

Etc.

Total Operating Expenses

?75.00

?75.00

?79.00

?75.00

?75.00

?71.00

?79.00

?70.00

?75.00

?75.00

?75.00

?75.00

Motor Vehicle Expenses

Fuel

 300.00

 270.00

 200.00

320.00

 310.00

 310.00

 300.00

 305.00

 310.00

 310.00

 312.00

 312.00

Vehicle service costs

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

 75.00

Tyres & other replacement costs

 600.00

Insurance

Registrations

Total Motor Vehicle Expenses

?375.00

?345.00

?275.00

?395.00

?385.00

?385.00

?975.00

?380.00

?385.00

?385.00

?387.00

?387.00

Website Expenses

Domain name registration

Hosting expenses

etc

Total Website Expenses

Employment Expenses

Permanent

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

450.00

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

 450.00

Salaries/Wages

 300.00

 300.00

 370.00

 370.00

 370.00

 370.00

 370.00

 370.00

 370.00

 440.00

 440.00

 440.00

PAYE

 35.00

 35.00

 41.00

 41.00

 41.00

 41.00

 41.00

 41.00

 41.00

 46.00

 46.00

 46.00

Superannuation

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

Other – Employee Benefits

 22.00

 20.00

 22.00

 20.00

 20.00

 2,528.00

 25.00

 30.00

 18.00

 10.00

 20.00

 24.00

Recruitment costs

 300.00

Total Perm. Employment Expenses

669.00

 367.00

 445.00

 443.00

 443.00

 2,951.00

 448.00

 453.00

 441.00

 508.00

 518.00

 522.00

Casual

Salaries/Wages

 300.00

 300.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

 280.00

PAYE

 8.00

 8.00

 8.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

Superannuation

Other – Employee Benefits

Recruitment costs

230

Total Casual Employment Expenses

?538.00

?308.00

?288.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

?287.00

Workcover Insurance

 12.00

 14.00

 14.00

14.00

 14.00

 14.00

 13.00

 14.00

 14.00

 14.00

 14.00

 14.00

Total Employment Expenses

?1,219.00

?689.00

?747.00

?744.00

?744.00

?3,252.00

?748.00

?754.00

?742.00

?809.00

?819.00

?823.00

Occupancy Costs

Electricity/Gas

 18.00

 17.00

15.00

 18.00

 20.00

 10.00

 21.00

 22.00

 21.00

 21.00

 21.00

 22.00

Telephones

 7.00

 7.00

 .00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

 7.00

Property Insurance

Rates

Rent

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

 800.00

Repair & maintenance

200

Waste removal

Water

 10.00

 12.00

 12.00

 12.00

 14.00

 14.00

 16.00

 17.00

 18.00

 18.00

 16.00

 16.00

Etc.

Total Occupancy Costs

?835.00

?836.00

?834.00

?837.00

?841.00

?831.00

?1,044.00

?846.00

?846.00

?846.00

?844.00

?845.00

Other Expenses

Add an expense description here

Add an expense description here

Add an expense description here

Add an expense description here

Add an expense description here

Add an expense description here

Total Other Expenses

Total Expenses

?2,961.90

?1,831.00

?1,863.00

?1,868.00

?1,860.00

?4,344.50

?2,031.50

?1,832.00

?1,824.00

?1,891.00

?1,901.00

?1,906.00

Month Net Profit / (Loss)

-?1,696.90

-?180.00

?125.00

?592.00

-?35.00

-?1,909.50

-$155.50

?193.00

?281.00

?312.00

?910.00

?507.00

Total Year to Date Net Profit / (Loss)

-?1,696.90

-?1,876.90

-?1,751.90

-?,1159.90

-?1,194.90

-?3,104.40

-?3,259.90

-?3,066.90

-?2,785.90

-?2,473.90

-?1,563.90

-?1,056.90

Venis restaurant

Profit and Loss Statement

For the Period ended Year One

ended June 2019

Income

Sales

44,800

   Total Sales

44,800

Cost of Goods Sold

Opening Stock

0

Stock Purchases

25,700

Less Closing Stock

3120

   Total Cost of Goods Sold(COGS)

?22580

Gross Profit

22220

Expenses

Advertising

500

Bank Service Charges

120

insurance

500

Payroll

7000

Professional Fees (Legal, Accounting)

200

Utilities & Telephone

800

Other: Computer Software

480

 Expenses total

9600

Net Profit before Tax

?12620

Profit and Loss Statement

statement for third year of operation

For the Period ended Year One

ended june 2019

Income

Sales

61,580

   Total Sales

61,580

Cost of Goods Sold

Opening Stock

3120

Stock Purchases

39,000

Less Closing Stock

5200

   Total Cost of Goods Sold(COGS)

?36920

Gross Profit

24660

Expenses

Advertising

320

Bank Service Charges

80

insurance

500

Payroll

7000

Professional Fees (Legal, Accounting)

110

Utilities & Telephone

500

Other: Computer Software

180

 Expenses total

8690

Net Profit before Tax

?15970

Projected balance sheet for Venis restaurant 

FY-1

FY-2

FY-3

Current Assets

Cash

10,500

11,000

12600

Investments

Inventories

5,942

4,534

5250

Accounts receivable

Pre-paid expenses

500

680

500

Other

450

467

550

Total

?17,392

?16,681

?18900

Fixed Assets

Property and equipment

35,000

42,000

42,000

Leasehold improvements

112

120

130

Equity and other investments

600

550

780

Less accumulated depreciation (Negative Value)

(100)

(85)

130

Total

?35,612

?42,585

?43040

Total Assets

?53,004

?59,266

?61940

Current Liabilities

Accounts payable

1,150

1,400

1800

Accrued wages

600

858

350

Accrued compensation

80

220

260

Income taxes payable

120

178

210

Unearned revenue

240

180

34

Other

30

30

26

Total

2,220

2,866

2680

Long-term Liabilities

long term loan

40,000

34,000

28000

Total

40,000

34,000

28000

Owner Equity

Investment capital

10,000

19,000

20000

Accumulated retained earnings

784

3,400

11000

Total

10,784

22,400

31000

Total Liabilities & Stockholder Equity

53,004

59,266

61940

Projected cash-flow statement for Venis restaurant for the first three years of operation

CASH FLOW

YEAR 1

YEAR 2

YEAR 3

OPENING BALANCE

?0

-?4,306

?8,836

Cash incoming

Sales

25,520

44,800

61,580

Asset sales

7,800

2,300

0

Debtor receipts

1,200

3,600

1,120

Other income

3,450

8,800

1,280

Total incoming

?37,970

?59,500

?63,980

Cash outgoing

Purchases (Stock etc)

21,120

25,700

39,000

Accountant fees

1,200

1,200

1,000

Solicitor fees

Advertising & marketing

600

500

320

Bank fees & charges

80

80

36

Interest paid

120

110

110

Credit card fees

80

50

30

Utilities (electricity, gas, water)

180

110

90

Telephone

180

160

120

Lease/loan payments

6,000

6,000

6,000

Rent & rates

8,000

8,000

8,000

Motor vehicle expenses

1,200

800

600

Repairs & maintenance

600

700

750

Stationery & printing

90

110

80

Membership & affiliation fees

Licensing

260

260

260

Insurance

500

500

500

Superannuation

120

120

80

Income tax

146

158

158

Wages (including PAYG)

1,800

1,800

1,800

More…

Total outgoing

?42,276

?46,358

?58,934

Yearly cash balance

-?4,306

?13,142

?5,046

Closing Balance

-?4,306

?8,836

?13,882

Assumptions:

 All figures are GST inclusive.

There are several performance ratios that can be used in analyzing the expected financial performance of the organization. These ratios help in giving a clear insight to various stakeholders of the business. Information from financial ratios can be used by different groups such as investors, creditors, suppliers, financial institutions, and even the government. These ratios are very important for decision making purpose especially by the management and the shareholders of the business (Marich,2013). The following are the financial ratios which will be relevant when asking for additional funding from the NGO:

Year 1                    Year 2                   

15180/23070=0.66 =66%      22200/44800=0.50=50%

Year 3

22660/61580=0.34=34%

The gross profit margin ratio of a business organization is calculated by dividing the gross profit with the total sales volume for the entire year. The ratio is used to determine the rate at which unit sales generates profits before expenses are catered for. According to information from Venis projected financial statements, the gross margin ratio of the business is decreasing from the first year going forward to the third year of operation. This is due to the strategy of the business which aims at beginning business with low prices so as to attract customers for the business. As the business gets more customers, the prices may be increased slightly in order to raise the profit margin so as to help recover the initial capital invested into the business. The increase in prices therefore explains the increase in gross profit margin ratio over the period under consideration.

The net profit margin is expressed by dividing the net profits by the total sales expressed as a percentage. This ratio is very important since it indicates how efficient a business organization is in transforming raw materials into final revenue. It shows how a business is able to minimize costs while at same time generating maximum income for the business. The following is the net profit margin ratio for Venis restaurant for the first three years;

Year 1                        year 2              year 3

2876/23070=0.12=12%        12620/44800=0.28     15970/61580=0.25

The above information indicates that the net profit margin for the business will differ for the first three years with no specific pattern. The first year, the net profit margin is at12% and increases to 28% in the following year. Net profit margin is low in the first year due to high fixed costs which were required when starting the business. The net profit margin increases in the second year due to decrease in costs and increase in sales. In the third year, the NPF decrease due to various market dynamics such as increase in selling and administrative cost due the expansion of the business. The higher the NPM the more attractive the business will be.

Break even analysis

TR=TC

P×X=TFC+V×X

P×X-V×X=TFC

(P-V)×X=TFC

X=TFC/P-v

Where:

TFC is Total fixed cost

P is unit sale price

V is variable cost

TFC=16060

P=14

V=9

BER= 16,060/(14-9)=3212 

The debt equity ratio measure risk position of a business. It is calculated by diving the total debt capital with the total owners’ equity.

Year 1                  year 2             year 3

42220/10784=3.9       36866/22400=1.7      30680/31000=0.99

The debt equity ratio of the business is projected to keep decreasing over the years. This is due to ability of the business to repay its loans and creditors on time. The debt equity ratio is increasing also due to increase in retained earnings which increases owner’s equity. This is a positive indication to the lenders and investors that the business has the ability to repay its loans when they fall due.

The plan for Venis restaurant is to start the business an initial capital of ?500000. The business is designed to be a partnership between two people who are expected to contribute capital equally. The sources of funds for starting the business will from the owner’s savings and contributions from friends. Each of the partners is expected to contribute ?5,000 each at the start of the business. Of the remaining amount, ?30,000 will be a loan from a bank which will be paid within period of five years. The remaining amount of ?10,000 will be borrowed from a local charitable organization. The business is very conscious of its debts equity ratio and will be committed to meeting all its long term and short term financial obligations when they fall due. The loans will be obtained from financial institutions that offer credit at the lowest interest rates in the market (Ross, 2008).

This section is set to enable the entrepreneur to present their business idea to potential investors and precisely to the charitable organization which is offering loans.

Title: Presentation of the business plan in order to seek funding from the charitable organization.

Business name: Venis restaurant

The business will be named Venis restaurant. The name was chosen due to its general appeal and its easier for customers to identify the business with such a simple name.

Physical address: 56,890-London

Ownership model: Partnership

The new restaurant will be owned by two partners, Michael Keane and Alexis Cole. The partners will contributes capital equally and share profits and losses in the same ratio. The business is expected to operate according to the laid down laws and regulations governing operations of partnership in the country.

The business will require ?50,000 to start. The partners of the business are seeking an additional funding of ?10,000. The sources of the rest of the money are identified and the bank loan has already been processed. This report therefore aims at obtaining a loan amounting to ?10,000 that will be used to boast the business and help in implementing the business plan in order to generate revenue and create employment. Please consider the report and the projected financial statement in making a decision on the amount you will be willing to grant our business.

Conclusion

The report analyses the external environment of the industry in which the business will be operating. It identifies the strengths, weaknesses and opportunities that can be exploited by the business in future. The report also analyses the market conditions of the business in order to help the owners and the management in preparing adequately for the running of the new business venture. The final part of the report contains the projected financial statements of Venis to help predict the financial future of the business. 

References

Ross, d. F. (2008). Competing through supply chain management: Creating market-winning strategies through supply chain partnerships. https:// j. (2010). Kellogg on marketing. Hoboken, n.j., wiley. https://www.123library.org/book_details/?Id=8488.

Marich, r. (2013). Marketing to moviegoers: A handbook of strategies and tactics. Carbondale, southern illinois university press.

Weinberg, t. (2009). The new community rules: Marketing on the social web. Sebastopol, o’reilly media, inc. https://public.eblib.com/choice/publicfullrecord.aspx?P=536620.

Keillor, b. D. (2007). Marketing in the 21st century. Westport, conn, praeger. https://ebooks.abc-clio.com/?Isbn=9780313086434.

Warwick, j. (2008). Eat london. London, filmer

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Christopher, m. (2016). Logistics & supply chain management.